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Our friends at Calculatedriskblog.com created this chart which shows how mortgage rates are faring and how they have not yet responded to rising Treasury rates.The question of course is will they when the Feds stop buying mortgages in a few weeks.

 

What does this tell us? Could be a pretty good time to lock in rates.

The industry is in shambles for two reasons, the first of which must be lived with if the U.S. economy is to recover. This reason concerns U.S. housing starts (including apartment units). In 2009, starts were 554,000, by far the lowest number in the 50 years for which we have data. Paradoxically, this is

good news. People thought it was good news a few years back when housing starts – the supply side of the picture – were running about two million annually. But household formations – the demand side – only amounted to about 1.2 million. After a few years of such imbalances, the country unsurprisingly ended up with far too many houses. There were three ways to cure this overhang: (1) blow up a lot of houses, a tactic similar to the destruction of autos that occurred with the “cash-for-clunkers” program; (2) speed up household formations by, say, encouraging teenagers to cohabitate, a program not likely to suffer from a lack of volunteers or; (3) reduce new housing starts to a number far below the rate of household formations. Our country has wisely selected the third option, which means that within a year or so residential housing problems should largely be behind us, the exceptions being only high-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious. Prices will remain far below “bubble” levels, of course, but for every seller (or lender) hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits. Indeed, many families that couldn’t afford to buy an appropriate home a few years ago now find it well within their means because the bubble burst.

For those interest in Maui Real Estate the bold is obviously the most interesting part of the text.

Even our bad weather is spectacular!

 

Home sale prices in Southern California showed fresh strength in January, bouncing 8.6% from the same month one year earlier — a period when the market was inundated with steeply discounted bank-owned properties.

 

This is undoubtedly good news, but it isn't all the news.

 

But compared with a particularly strong December, the median fell 6.1% to $271,500 in January, ending eight consecutive months of price appreciation

 

This is largely a function of the change in "mix" with the lower priced Inland Empire being even more active in January.  This report must be viewed as good news with apples to apples prices increasing while unemployment remains high.

 

For more details, contact us!

 

 

 

A venture including Maui development firm Everett Dowling Co. and a Morgan Stanley real estate fund bought the 310-room Maui Prince, two golf courses and 1,300 acres of undeveloped land in 2007 for $575 million from Japan-based Seibu Group with plans to reposition the property. The buyer financed the purchase with the mortgage plus $200 million in equity and $227 million from other investors that received no security in the property. Wells Fargo is the trustee for the mortgage debt held by a group of lenders.

What is likely to happen? Well properties usually continue to operate through procedures like this one. The question becomes what will bidders actually offer?

Often during foreclosure auctions, the mortgage holder can prevent anyone from acquiring the property for less than the amount owed on the mortgage by making a credit bid up to what is owed.

We will keep you apprised.

 

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
private inventory investment, exports, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE).  Imports, which
are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private
inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment that
were partly offset by decelerations in federal government spending and in PCE.

So why didn't the financial markets respond more positively? Because 3.4% was due to declining inventories, viewed as a one time event. So most think the more useful GDP number is the 2.3% after the inventory adjustment. Not a great growth rate, but far better than earlier 2009 results.

 

What is the impact on Maui real estate? Not much directly, but economic growth is always good news.