As you all know, the economists at Morgan Stanley are some of our favorites and we closely follow their daily notes. Here is the latest from today's release:

The deepening housing downturn, together with threats to consumer and capital spending, represent the most serious threat to the economy since early 2001, and in my view have brought the odds of recession to perhaps one in three…Although strong global growth is providing a powerful offset, manufacturing traditionally calls the tune for the business cycle, and the effects of tighter financial conditions are still playing out, so businesses, investors and policymakers clearly face challenges to growth.